Historically this question was relatively simple to answer. “Yes, that sounds like a wonderful idea. If you don’t want to be a doctor, then lawyer it is. Study hard kid. You can do it.” However, with lawyer numbers trending downwards, one wonders whether the correct answer is more like this: “Absolutely not. Lawyers are AI roadkill waiting to happen. You should be a data scientist. Go do your math homework.”
Not all lawyers are doomed, of course. There is plenty of work left for a profession that favors quick wits and creativity, especially at the high end. But looking at the data, it appears we have moved past “peak lawyer” and are now entering a downward trend. As the BLS graph shows, the number of “production” lawyers peaked around 2007, and never really recovered.
In his November 2019 paper, BLS economist Joseph Valentine shows that, since the “great recession”, both lawyer numbers and law firm price inflation have gone down and stayed down (see Producer prices in the legal services industry after the Great Recession). Indeed, 2018 lawyer numbers were back down at 2003 levels.
With the impact of COVID-19, it seems reasonable to predict that things are getting worse, not better. And as Legal AI continues to mature and take hold, it seems likely that lawyer jobs will continue to fall. It is possible that we’ll enter another AI winter, and that the jobs outlook will turn around. But based on my experience, Legal AI is starting to deliver results and value, if applied in a thoughtful and targeted way. Some AI may be over-hyped, but winter isn’t coming any time soon.
Kassandra, Esq. 